IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Présentation de la Maquette Retraites MARS-2003

Listed author(s):
  • Benoit Bellone

    (Direction de la prévision et de l'analyse économique)

  • Alexandre Vincent

    (Direction de la prévision et de l'analyse économique)

This paper describes the model MARS, which is the shared property of the DP and the DSS. Currently, MARS aims at planning the general evolution of the first pillar pension scheme for private sector wage-earners, based on macroeconomic and demographic data. It allows to evaluate the impact of changing the parameters used when calculating one’s annuities, or changing general hypotheses. The model provides results which deal with the dynamics of the average annuity and the financial sustainability of the pension scheme. MARS relies on a macroeconomic approach and aims at forecasting the life cycle of average individuals representing their generation. In concrete terms, each generation is represented by two agents (a man and a woman), whose behaviour is supposed to match the average economic and demographic characteristics of their peers (as far as fertility, activity and employment are concerned). In addition, another source of heterogeneity is acknowledged in the model concerning the retirement age, the distribution of which is determined endogenously. Then the evolution of the representative annuity, calculated on the basis of these data, is considered to reflect the dynamics of the average annuity – and at this stage, sustainability indicators for the pension scheme can be inferred. First, the document introduces the demographic and macroeconomic framework of the model, which basically relies on the population and labour force projections of the INSEE, and takes the Conseil d’Orientation des Retraites scenario as a benchmark for the evolution of real wages and unemployment. The making of the retirement decision is a key feature of the model : it is assumed that men will retire when reaching entitlement to the full rate, and that the male and female distributions of retirement ages will match from the 1970 generation onwards. On the basis of these hypotheses, the average pension and the financing requirement of the pension scheme can be evaluated. As an illustration, the results of two variants are displayed: one deals with the impact of the lengthening of the contribution period which results from the August 2003 Act, the other one shows the sensitiveness of the results to alternative demographic scenarios. We conclude about the weaknesses of the model, which is based on the lifecycle of average individuals, and the flaws associated to a macroeconomic approach, versus a dynamic microsimulation one. Besides, MARS should encounter new limits, due to non-linear effects and deeper uncertainty associated to changes in the method used to calculate pensions after the 2003 reform. This paper is written in French.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Public Economics with number 0407003.

in new window

Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 05 Jul 2004
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwppe:0407003
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 31. This paper introduces a long term model of retirement projection of the main French pension scheme
Contact details of provider: Web page:

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwppe:0407003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.