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Anticipations, External Crises and Growth Cycles in Emerging Market Countries


  • Martin Melecky

    (University of New South Wales, School of Economics)


This paper attempts to carry out a study of relative importance of anticipated and unanticipated external crises for the dynamics of economic growth. The estimations are carried out within a two equation system capturing the possibility of a common shock to external crises and growth. The effect of current-account reversals on growth appears to be similar across considered regions, however, one cannot draw any general conclusion about the importance of the unanticipated component of the reversals for growth. The effect of currency crises appears to vary across the regions of Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America and Asia. The unanticipated component of the currency crises is significant only in CEE. The unanticipated component in the effect of the joint crisis on growth appears to be important in Latin America, and with lower precision also in CEE and Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Melecky, 2005. "Anticipations, External Crises and Growth Cycles in Emerging Market Countries," International Finance 0502003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0502003
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 30

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    Anticipations; External Crises; Growth Cycle; Panel Data.;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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