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Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Carbone

    (Faculté des sciences de l'administration, Université Laval)

  • JS Armstrong

    (The Wharton School - University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

There exists a large number of quantitative extrapolative forecasting methods which may be applied in research work or implemented in an organizational setting. For instance, the lead article of this issue of the Journal of Forecasting compares the ability to forecast the future of over twenty univariate forecasting methods. Forecasting researchers in various academic disciplines as well as practitioners in private or public organizations are commonly faced with the problem of evaluating forecasting methods and ultimately selecting one. Thereafter, most become advocates of the method they have selected. On what basis are choices made? More specifically, what are the criteria used or the dimensions judged important? If a survey was taken among academicians and practitioners, would the same criteria arise? Would they be weighted equally? Before you continue reading this note, write on a piece of paper your criteria in order of importance and answer the last two questions. This will enable you to see whether or not you share the same values as your colleagues and test the accuracy of your perception.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Carbone & JS Armstrong, 2004. "Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners," General Economics and Teaching 0412008, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0412008
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 3
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    Cited by:

    1. Fred Collopy & J. Scott Armstrong, 1992. "Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(10), pages 1394-1414, October.
    2. JS Armstrong & Robert Fildes, 2004. "Correspondence On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons Among Forecasting Methods," General Economics and Teaching 0412002, EconWPA.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    extrapolation; forecasting; extrapolative forecasting method;

    JEL classification:

    • A - General Economics and Teaching

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