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Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners


  • Robert Carbone

    (Faculté des sciences de l'administration, Université Laval)

  • JS Armstrong

    (The Wharton School - University of Pennsylvania)


There exists a large number of quantitative extrapolative forecasting methods which may be applied in research work or implemented in an organizational setting. For instance, the lead article of this issue of the Journal of Forecasting compares the ability to forecast the future of over twenty univariate forecasting methods. Forecasting researchers in various academic disciplines as well as practitioners in private or public organizations are commonly faced with the problem of evaluating forecasting methods and ultimately selecting one. Thereafter, most become advocates of the method they have selected. On what basis are choices made? More specifically, what are the criteria used or the dimensions judged important? If a survey was taken among academicians and practitioners, would the same criteria arise? Would they be weighted equally? Before you continue reading this note, write on a piece of paper your criteria in order of importance and answer the last two questions. This will enable you to see whether or not you share the same values as your colleagues and test the accuracy of your perception.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Carbone & JS Armstrong, 2004. "Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners," General Economics and Teaching 0412008, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0412008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Copeland, Ronald M & Marioni, Robert J, 1972. "Executives' Forecasts of Earnings per Share versus Forecasts of Naive Models," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(4), pages 497-512, October.
    3. Finnerty, Joseph E, 1976. "Insiders and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1141-1148, September.
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    5. Kamin, J. Y. & Ronen, J., 1978. "The smoothing of income numbers: Some empirical evidence on systematic differences among management-controlled and owner-controlled firms," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 141-157, June.
    6. Philip Brown & Victor Niederhoffer, 1968. "The Predictive Content of Quarterly Earnings," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41, pages 488-488.
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    9. Barefield, Russell M. & Comiskey, Eugene E., 1975. "The accuracy of analysts' forecasts of earnings per share," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 241-252, July.
    10. Fried, Dov & Givoly, Dan, 1982. "Financial analysts' forecasts of earnings : A better surrogate for market expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 85-107, October.
    11. Brown, Lawrence D & Rozeff, Michael S, 1978. "The Superiority of Analyst Forecasts as Measures of Expectations: Evidence from Earnings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-16, March.
    12. repec:bla:joares:v:18:y:1980:i:2:p:390-406 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. J. G. Cragg & Burton G. Malkiel, 1968. "The Consensus And Accuracy Of Some Predictions Of The Growth Of Corporate Earnings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 67-84, March.
    14. Chant, Peter D, 1980. " On the Predictability of Corporate Earnings Per Share Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-21, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fred Collopy & J. Scott Armstrong, 1992. "Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(10), pages 1394-1414, October.
    2. JS Armstrong & Robert Fildes, 2004. "Correspondence On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons Among Forecasting Methods," General Economics and Teaching 0412002, EconWPA.

    More about this item


    extrapolation; forecasting; extrapolative forecasting method;

    JEL classification:

    • A - General Economics and Teaching

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