Land-use Change and Forestry in Austria: A Scientific Assessment of Austria's Carbon Balance in Light of Article 3 of the Kyoto Protocol

Article 3 of the Kyoto Protocol states that Parties included in Annex I shall use net changes in greenhouse gas emissions from sources and removals by sinks resulting from direct human-induced land-use change and forestry (LUCF) activities since 1990 to meet their their emission reduction commitments. However, even with clear guidelines on how to calculate LUCF emissions and removals, considerable problems remain. Our paper addresses a number of relevant issues by summarizing the knowledge gained from assessing and quantifying sources and sinks of carbon compounds relevant to Austria on the basis of an interated operational model framework, the \f2Austrian Carbon Balance Model\f1 (ACBM). The ACBM covers Austria's biosphere and technosphere and at present permits project researchers to run a Reference Scenario for 1990-2050. We attempt to generalize our experience and also to compare our model results regarding Austria's net atmospheric carbon contribution on the basis of uncertainties underlying these results. This permits us (1) to identify several high-priority research issues that will enable Austria to cope adequately with its commitments under the Kyoto Protocol; and (2) to draw general conclusions that may provide support to the Conference of the Parties as it decides upon modalities, rules and guidelines in accounting for LUCF emissions and removals.