IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Transition Countries in 2003: Reforms and Restructuring Keep the Global Economic Slowdown at Bay

Listed author(s):
  • Peter Havlik


    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

Despite the unfavourable external economic climate over the past three years, the transition countries have displayed a reasonably good growth performance. The region as a whole has expanded more rapidly than the EU; it is also catching up in terms of productivity - especially in manufacturing. As of mid-2003, there are few signs of the protracted global economic slowdown threatening the transition countries' short- and medium-term growth prospects to any marked degree. Scheduled to join the EU in May 2004, a number of countries in Central and Eastern Europe which have attracted appreciable amounts of FDI recently improved their competitive position by securing larger export shares in the EU market. Russia continues to cash in on high revenues from energy exports; its GDP growth is accelerating while investments recover. Whereas some of the latecomers to reform and stabilization in the Balkans (Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia) have been rapidly catching up in many respects, the situation in most countries in the Western Balkans remains precarious. The economies of the transition countries in Central and Eastern Europe will grow on average by about 3% in both 2003 and 2004 - somewhat faster than over the period 2001 2002 and outstripping the eurozone again. A slow, but steady acceleration of GDP growth is forecast for Poland. Russia and Ukraine will also experience swifter growth in 2003, only to take time out in 2004. Inflation continues to drop to single-digit annual rates throughout the region (with the exception of Romania, Serbia & Montenegro and Russia), yet it is still higher than in the eurozone (except perhaps for the Czech Republic and Poland). Unemployment displays a similar pattern. Given the current gaps in labour productivity and efficiency reserves, the present modest rates of economic growth do not make for the creation of additional jobs. Although generally quite high, current account deficits in the EU accession countries are of no immediate concern as their financing is secured via capital inflows. This is not the case in the Western Balkans; Russia and Ukraine, however, continue to enjoy current account surpluses, with Russia slowly starting to attract an increasing volume of FDI as well.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
File Function: Order URL / Description
Download Restriction: Only to order

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Paper provided by The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw in its series wiiw Research Reports with number 297.

in new window

Length: 94 pages including 29 Tables and 21 Figures
Date of creation: Jul 2003
Publication status: Published as wiiw Research Report
Handle: RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:297
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Rahlgasse 3, A-1060 Vienna

Phone: (+43-1) 533 66 10
Fax: (+43-1) 533 66 10-50
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web:

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:297. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Customer service)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.