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Osteuropa trotzt dem globalen Gegenwind

Author

Listed:
  • Vasily Astrov

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Julia Grübler

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

Abstract

This publication is available in German language only. For a brief English summary see further below. Die Konjunktur in den mittel-, ost- und südosteuropäischen Ländern (MOSOEL) kühlt sich zwar ab, aber viel weniger als noch im Frühjahr erwartet Die Prognosen für heuer wurden für die Mehrheit der Länder nach oben revidiert. Vor allem in der EU-MOE-Region hat sich das Wachstum vom Abschwung im Euro-Raum recht deutlich abgekoppelt. In einigen Ländern mehren sich sogar die Anzeichen einer Überhitzung, die allerdings nur in Rumänien Anlass zur Sorge gibt. Die Westbalkanländer profitieren von steigenden FDI-Zuflüssen, mehrere GUS-Länder von der expansiven Fiskalpolitik. In Russland dagegen hat der restriktive fiskalpolitische Kurs die Wirtschaft an den Rand einer Rezession gebracht. Die Wirtschaftskrise in der Türkei erwies sich zwar tiefer als früher erwartet, dürfte aber spätestens 2020 überwunden sein. Insbesondere die Visegrád-Staaten gehören zu Österreichs wichtigsten Wirtschaftspartnern. Ihnen waren im Jahr 2018 mehr als 10% des österreichischen Güterhandels, 20% der Einkommen aus Direktinvestitionen sowie 40% der Auslandsforderungen österreichischer Banken zuzurechnen. Gleichzeitig sind sie auch EU-Mitglieder mit brisanten politischen und wirtschaftlichen Herausforderungen, von welchen auch Österreich nicht unberührt bleiben wird. English Summary Eastern Europe standing firm in face of global headwinds The economy in the Central, East and Southeast European countries (CESEE) is cooling down, but much less than expected in the spring the forecasts for this year have been revised upwards for the majority of countries. Particularly in the EU-CEE region, growth has decoupled quite clearly from the downturn in the euro area. In several countries there are even signs of overheating, although only in Romania this is a cause for concern. The Western Balkans are benefiting from rising FDI inflows, while several CIS countries from expansionary fiscal policy. In Russia, on the other hand, the restrictive fiscal policy has brought the economy to the brink of recession. Although the economic crisis in Turkey proved to be deeper than previously expected, it should be overcome by 2020 at the latest. The Visegrád countries, in particular, prove very important for the Austrian economy. In 2018, they accounted for more than 10% of Austrian goods trade, 20% of income generated by Austrian investment abroad, as well as 40% of foreign claims of Austrian banks. At the same time, they are among the EU Member States facing increasing political and economic challenges, by which Austria will not be unaffected.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasily Astrov & Julia Grübler, 2019. "Osteuropa trotzt dem globalen Gegenwind," wiiw Research Reports in German language 14, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  • Handle: RePEc:wii:ratpap:rpg:14
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    File URL: https://wiiw.ac.at/osteuropa-trotzt-dem-globalen-gegenwind-dlp-4964.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunkturprognose; Mittelosteuropa; Westbalkan; Visegrád; Österreich; EU-Osterweiterung; Außenhandel; Investitionen; FDI; Automatisierung; Arbeitskräftemangel; Migration; economic forecast; Central and Eastern Europe; Western Balkans; Visegrád; Austria; EU Eastern Enlargement; international trade; investment; FDI; automation; labour shortages; migration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • P24 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • P27 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects
    • P33 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid
    • P52 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

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