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Have commercial banks ignored history?

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  • Ozler, Sule

Abstract

What incentives do countries have to repay loans? Do banks credibly punish borrowers that behave badly - and if so, how? Two explanations are commonly offered for why countries repay debts: (a) to preserve their reputation as a good borrower; or (b) to avoid direct sanctions, such as trade sanctions or the seizure of overseas assets. The author empirically investigated the effect of repayment problems in earlier eras on the spreads paid by developing country borrowers in the 1970s. She found that creditor banks did take account of borrowers'default histories. Defaulters paid higher spreads than nondefaulters, and the defaulters that reneged on large portions of their past debt paid higher spreads. She also found that countries that acquired sovereignty more recently were charged higher spreads than other countries. These findings apply during an expansionist period. During an earlier crisis stage, markets failed to discriminate between borrowers that"behaved badly"and those that did not.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozler, Sule, 1991. "Have commercial banks ignored history?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 620, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:620
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stanislav Kolenikov & Anthony Shorrocks, 2005. "A Decomposition Analysis of Regional Poverty in Russia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 25-46, February.
    2. Jenkins, Stephen P., 2011. "Changing Fortunes: Income Mobility and Poverty Dynamics in Britain," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199226436.
    3. Train, Kenneth & Wilson, Wesley W., 2008. "Estimation on stated-preference experiments constructed from revealed-preference choices," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 191-203, March.
    4. Datt, Gaurav & Ravallion, Martin, 1992. "Growth and redistribution components of changes in poverty measures : A decomposition with applications to Brazil and India in the 1980s," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 275-295, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gooptu, Sudarshan & Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad, 1992. "Factors that affect short-term commercial bank lending to developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 886, The World Bank.
    2. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.

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