IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Scaling up aid or scaling down : the global economic crisis and Rwanda's MDGs


  • Lofgren, Hans
  • Nielsen, Hannah
  • Ezemenari, Kene


Rwanda is not on track to achieve most of the Millennium Development Goals at a time when hopes for scaled-up aid are mixed with concerns that, in the context of the global economic crisis, aid instead will be scaled down. This paper analyzes the effects of alternative scenarios for grant aid, government spending allocations (between infrastructure, agriculture, and human development), and government efficiency. The authors use an economy-wide model for development strategy analysis, Maquette for Millennium Development Goal Simulations. Under a plausible scenario for increased aid, annual growth in gross domestic product increases by as much as 0.6 percentage points relative to a baseline with a growth rate of 6 percent; by 2020, the headcount poverty rate declines to 32 percent, 3 percentage points lower than for the baseline. A plausible scenario for reduced aid leads to a symmetric growth reduction but a more pronounced increase in poverty, at 40 percent in 2020. When aid increases, the most positive growth and poverty reduction impacts occur if spending increases are allocated to infrastructure and agriculture; progress in human health and education is significant but weaker than if additional spending is focused on these areas. Given synergies and diminishing marginal returns from expansion in a limited area, the scenarios that may appear most attractive and politically feasible have a broad and balanced expansion across government functions, promoting both growth and human development.

Suggested Citation

  • Lofgren, Hans & Nielsen, Hannah & Ezemenari, Kene, 2009. "Scaling up aid or scaling down : the global economic crisis and Rwanda's MDGs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4958, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4958

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bourguignon, Francois & Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina & Lofgren, Hans, 2008. "Aid, service delivery, and the millennium development goals in an economy-wide framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4683, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Sayeed, Yeasmin, 2014. "Trade-offs in Achieving Human Development Goals for Bangladesh," Working Papers 2014:6, Örebro University, School of Business.
    2. World Bank, 2010. "Republic of Rwanda : Technical Assistance for Public Expenditure Management," World Bank Other Operational Studies 18528, The World Bank.

    More about this item


    Population Policies; Economic Theory&Research; Debt Markets; Achieving Shared Growth;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4958. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.