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Population Age structure and the budget deficit

Author

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  • Chen, Derek H. C.

Abstract

The author focuses on the effects of age structure changes on the size of budget deficits of national governments. More specifically, he determines whether differences in age structure can account for the observed differences in budget deficits across countries as well as across time. By way of an extension of the untested theory of negative bequest motives advocated by Cukierman and Meltzer (1989), the author argues that the commonly accepted notion that population aging tends to increase the budget deficits of economies is theoretically consistent. However, preliminary results from country and time fixed-effects panel regressions, estimated from 1975 to 1992 over 55 industrial and developing countries, indicate statistical evidence for this postulation is present only in the developing countries but not in the industrial countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Derek H. C., 2004. "Population Age structure and the budget deficit," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3435, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3435
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tae-Jeong Kim & Mihye Lee & Robert Dekle, 2014. "The Impact of Population Aging on the Countercyclical Fiscal Stance in Korea, with a Focus on the Automatic Stabilizer," Working Papers 2014-21, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    2. Nicolas Afflatet, 2016. "The impact of population ageing on public debt. A panel analysis for eighteen european countries," Working Papers 1615, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.

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