IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/337.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Projecting mortality for all countries

Author

Listed:
  • Bulatao, Rodolfo A.
  • Bos, Eduard
  • Stephens, Patience W.
  • My T. Vu

Abstract

This report is an attempt to develop a method for projecting mortality trends in all countries into the future, both over the short term (for one or two decades) and over the long term (for one or two centuries). Two indicators are the focus of this exercise: life expectancy at birth and the infant mortality rate. The projection of the age pattern of mortality is considered but no empirical analysis performed. In the introduction, the reasons for focusing on life expectancy and infant mortality is discussed and a preview of the major issues is provided. Then previous projection approaches are briefly summarized. Analysis is then presented separately for life expectancy and infant mortality, covering appropriate representations of universal time trends and country-specific trends and how they might be predicted. Finally, illustrative projections are used to show the effects of the derived procedures, and some conclusions are drawn.

Suggested Citation

  • Bulatao, Rodolfo A. & Bos, Eduard & Stephens, Patience W. & My T. Vu, 1989. "Projecting mortality for all countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 337, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:337
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/1989/12/01/000009265_3960928133228/Rendered/PDF/multi0page.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dalkhat M. Ediev, 2009. "Extrapolative Projections of Mortality: Towards a More Consistent Method," VID Working Papers 0803, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    2. Bulatao, Rodolfo A. & Bos, Eduard & Stephens, Patience W. & Vu, My T., 1989. "Asia region population projections : 1989-90 edition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 331, The World Bank.
    3. Bos, Eduard & Stephens, Patience W. & Vu, My T. & Bulatao, Rodolfo A., 1991. "Europe, Middle East, and North Africa region population projections : 1990-91," Policy Research Working Paper Series 601, The World Bank.
    4. Bulatao, Rodolfo A. & Bos, Eduard & Stephens, Patience W. & Vu, My T., 1989. "Africa region population projections : 1989-90 edition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 330, The World Bank.
    5. Bos, Eduard & Bulatao, Rodolfo, 1990. "Projecting fertility for all countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 500, The World Bank.
    6. -, 1994. "Notas de Población Vol.22 N° 59," Notas de Población, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), vol. 22, June.
    7. Lee, Ronald & Rofman, Rafael, 1994. "Modelación y proyección de la mortalidad en Chile," Notas de Población, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), June.
    8. Bulatao, Rodolfo A. & Bos, Eduard & Stephens, Patience W. & Vu, My T., 1989. "Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region population projections : 1989-90 edition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 329, The World Bank.
    9. Bulatao, Rodolfo A. & Stephens, Patience W., 1992. "Global estimates and projections of mortality by cause, 1970-2015," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1007, The World Bank.
    10. Stephens, Patience W. & Bos, Eduard & Vu, My T. & Bulatao, Rodolfo A., 1991. "Africa region population projections : 1990-91," Policy Research Working Paper Series 598, The World Bank.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:337. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.