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Did the 2018 Trade War Improve Job Opportunities for US Workers ?

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Listed:
  • Javorcik,Beata
  • Stapleton,Katherine Anne
  • Kett,Benjamin Robert
  • O’Kane,Layla

Abstract

This paper uses data on the near universe of job adverts posted online in the US to study theimpact of the 2018 trade war on US job opportunities. It develops measures of labor market exposure to three keychannels of impact from the trade war: import protection for US producers, the higher cost of imported inputs for USproducers, and exposure of US exporters to retaliatory tariffs. It finds evidence that both tariffs on importedinputs and retaliatory tariffs led to a relative decline in online job postings in affected commuting zones. Theseeffects were stronger for lower skilled postings than for higher skill postings. By contrast, it does not find anyevidence of positive impacts of import protection on job openings. It estimates that the tariffs led to a combinedeffect of 175,000 fewer job postings in 2018, or 0.6 percent of the US total, with two thirds of this aggregate declinedue to the imported input tariffs and one third due to retaliatory tariffs.

Suggested Citation

  • Javorcik,Beata & Stapleton,Katherine Anne & Kett,Benjamin Robert & O’Kane,Layla, 2022. "Did the 2018 Trade War Improve Job Opportunities for US Workers ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10249, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10249
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    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099421212012251677/pdf/IDU0500ae4fa0848304bab089c9089e7cdc8970e.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions

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