IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/war/wpaper/2011-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The coincident and the leading business cycle indicators for Poland

Author

Listed:
  • Rafał Woźniak

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw; National Bank of Poland)

Abstract

In the paper, two indicators, the coincident and the leading indicator, are proposed to represent the aggregated economic activity in Poland. The indicators are constructed with stochastic cycle and trend model. Not only does the presented approach solve the problem of existence of stochastic trends in the observed series, but it also allows to account for a different data span of each series in dataset.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafał Woźniak, 2011. "The coincident and the leading business cycle indicators for Poland," Working Papers 2011-01, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2011-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/inf/wyd/WP/WNE_WP41.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2011
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; leading indicators; coincident indicators; dynamic factor model; stochastic cycle; stochastic trend;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2011-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marcin Bąba (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fesuwpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.