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A Proposal for a Selection Criterion in a Class of Dynamic Rational Expectations Models with Multiple Equilibria

  • Robert A. Driskill

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University)

The paper argues that multiple equilibria-whether non-stationary or stationary- are a generic property of dynamic rational expectations models. In light of this, this paper proposes a selection criterion for choosing between these multiple equilibria in an important class of dynamic rational expectations models. The criterion is based on the idea that agents can be assumed to coordinate their beliefs around the limit of a finite-horizon equilibrium. For three examples examined, all of which can have multiple stationary, i.e., non-explosive, rational expectations equilibria, there is, among the multiple equilibria of an infinite-horizon model, only one that is the limit of a finite-horizon model.

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File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/pubs/VUECON/vu02-w10.pdf
File Function: First version, 2002
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Vanderbilt University Department of Economics in its series Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers with number 0210.

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Date of creation: Apr 2002
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Handle: RePEc:van:wpaper:0210
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.vanderbilt.edu/econ/wparchive/index.html

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  8. Karp, Larry, 1996. "Depreciation erodes the Coase Conjecture," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 473-490, February.
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  11. Shell, Karl, 1971. "Notes on the Economics of Infinity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(5), pages 1002-11, Sept.-Oct.
  12. Bryant, John, 1983. "A Simple Rational Expectations Keynes-Type Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 525-28, August.
  13. Tsutsui, Shunichi & Mino, Kazuo, 1990. "Nonlinear strategies in dynamic duopolistic competition with sticky prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 136-161, October.
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  15. Evans, George W., 1986. "Selection criteria for models with non-uniqueness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 147-157, September.
  16. Herrendorf, Berthold & Valentinyi, Akos & Waldmann, Robert, 2000. "Ruling Out Multiplicity and Indeterminacy: The Role of Heterogeneity," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 295-307, April.
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  18. Howitt, Peter & McAfee, R Preston, 1988. "Stability of Equilibria with Externalities," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(2), pages 261-77, May.
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  23. P. Diamond, 1980. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Working papers 268, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  24. Driskill, Robert & McCafferty, Stephen, 2001. "Monopoly and Oligopoly Provision of Addictive Goods," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(1), pages 43-72, February.
  25. Taylor, John B, 1977. "Conditions for Unique Solutions in Stochastic Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1377-85, September.
  26. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy, 1986. "A Theory of Rational Addiction," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 41, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
  27. McCafferty, Stephen & Driskill, Robert, 1980. "Problems of Existence and Uniqueness in Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1313-17, July.
  28. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "Market Fundamentals versus Price-Level Bubbles: The First Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 745-70, August.
  29. Roger E. A. Farmer, 1999. "Macroeconomics of Self-fulfilling Prophecies, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062038, June.
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