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The Role of Growth in Long Term Investment Returns

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Abstract

Stocks with a high valuation compared to fundamental values imply a high growth rate, yet these stocks have typically under-performed in subsequent years supporting Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishney's (1994) contrarian investment strategies. The precise definition of growth and subtle differences of measuring growth are explored in assessing the role of growth in long-term investment decisions and stock valuation. Results from a later period and with additional tests than employed by LSV indicate that growth is a primary valuation factor, and valuation measures such as E/P and B/M, are imperfect proxies for expected growth. Growth appears mean reverting, but investors do not seem able to discern changes in growth rates and this miss-specification of expected growth may help explain the superiority of value versus growth strategies. In addition, investors' naïve extrapolations of past growth provide explanatory power in future holding period returns.

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  • John Paul Broussard & David Michayluk & Walter P. Neely, 2005. "The Role of Growth in Long Term Investment Returns," Published Paper Series 2005-3, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  • Handle: RePEc:uts:ppaper:2005-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Mortal, Sandra C. & Schill, Michael J., 2018. "The role of firm investment in momentum and reversal," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 255-278.
    2. Michael J. Cooper & Huseyin Gulen & Michael J. Schill, 2008. "Asset Growth and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1609-1651, August.
    3. Xuan Vinh Vo & Hong Thu Bui, 2016. "Asset growth and the cross section of stock returns - evidence from Vietnam," Afro-Asian Journal of Finance and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(4), pages 289-304.
    4. Halit Gonenc & Silviu Ursu, 2018. "The Asset Growth Effect and Investor Protection in Emerging Markets: The Role of the Global Financial Crisis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 491-507, February.
    5. Michael Dempsey & Abeyratna Gunasekarage & Thanh Tan Truong, 2019. "The association between dividend payout and firm growth: Australian evidence," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 59(4), pages 2345-2376, December.
    6. Lin, Qi, 2017. "Noisy prices and the Fama–French five-factor asset pricing model in China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 141-163.
    7. Mortal, Sandra & Schill, Michael J., 2015. "The Post-Acquisition Returns of Stock Deals: Evidence of the Pervasiveness of the Asset Growth Effect," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 477-507, June.
    8. Tarek Ibrahim Eldomiaty & Mohamed Hashem Rashwan, 2013. "The use of financial data to monitor competing models of firm growth," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(1), pages 69-86.
    9. Gray, Philip & Johnson, Jessica, 2011. "The relationship between asset growth and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 670-680, March.
    10. Lipson, Marc L. & Mortal, Sandra & Schill, Michael J., 2011. "On the Scope and Drivers of the Asset Growth Effect," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(6), pages 1651-1682, December.
    11. Que, Jiangjing & Zhang, Xueyong, 2019. "Pre-IPO growth, venture capital, and the long-run performance of IPOs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 205-216.

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