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A Complementary Micro Coronavirus Model Under Uncertainty and Utility

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  • James P. Gander

Abstract

A micro decision-making utility model under uncertainty is presented as a complementary foundation for macro coronavirus models. The micro model consists of two functions, a risk averse utility function depending on wellness and a wellness random output which is a function of the input variable called “treatment” consisting of such elements as social distance, washing hands, wearing a face mask, and others. The decision maker selects a level of treatment that maximizes her/his expected utility, given the probabilities of the respective outputs. The focus is on how changes in a person’s psychological attitude towards the macro determined (announced) probabilities affects the optimum results of the model. Such changes create a micro-macro dynamic interaction which is briefly outlined. A short discussion of the model’s behavioral implications for health policy is also given.

Suggested Citation

  • James P. Gander, 2020. "A Complementary Micro Coronavirus Model Under Uncertainty and Utility," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2020_03, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uta:papers:2020_03
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Utility; Uncertainty; Risk Averse; Wellness Output; Treatment Inputs; Coronavirus; Psychological Risk Attitude; and Dynamic Interactions. JEL Classification: C02; C61; D11; D20; D81; D84; D91; I1; and I18;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • D20 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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