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Does futures exhibit maturity effect? New evidence from an extensive set of US and foreign futures contracts

Author

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  • Daal, Elton

    (University of New Orleans)

  • Farhat, Joseph Basheer

    (Hashemite University)

  • Wei, Peihwang P.

    (University of New Orleans)

Abstract

In a seminal article, Samuelson (1965) proposes the maturity effect that volatility of futures prices should increase as futures contract approaches maturity. This study provides new evidence on the maturity effect by examining a more extensive set of futures contracts than previous studies and analyzing each contract separately. Using 6805 futures contracts drawn from 61 commodities, including some data from non-US markets, we find that the maturity effect is absent in the majority of contracts. In addition, the maturity effect tends to be stronger in agricultural and energy commodities than in financial futures. We also examine the hypothesis in Bessembinder, Coughenour, Seguin, and Smoller (1996), which states that negative covariance between the spot price and net carry cost causes the maturity effect in futures. Our results provide very weak evidence in favor of this hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Daal, Elton & Farhat, Joseph Basheer & Wei, Peihwang P., 2004. "Does futures exhibit maturity effect? New evidence from an extensive set of US and foreign futures contracts," Working Papers 2004-03, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:uno:wpaper:2004-03
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    Keywords

    Maturity effect; Futures prices volatility; Futures markets;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

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