Reforms welcome? Evidence on the nature of asylum backlash and orderly admissions as a remedy

The correlation between rising asylum immigration and the electoral success of far-right anti-immigration parties has sparked concerns about a potential “Democratic Dilemma” – namely, a trade-off between a country’s openness to immigrants and the preservation of democratic institutional quality. Against this backdrop, I investigate the nature of the backlash to asylum immigration and analyze the potential of an “Orderly Admission Reform” to restore public acceptance for refugee protection. The data comes from an original large-scale online survey experiment conducted in Germany, Europe’s largest refugee-receiving country, where public sentiment changes have been particularly pronounced. My results reveal a “Principle-Practice” gap: while most Germans remain committed to refugee protection in principle, they express dissatisfaction with how the asylum system functions in practice. Qualitative analysis suggests that although there are concerns about the overall size of the refugee population, respondents take greater issue with the association between asylum immigration and irregular immigration. A reform proposal that aims to close irregular pathways for asylum seekers while simultaneously scaling up orderly admissions of recognized refugees enjoys broad public support. Support levels can be further boosted by embedding the proposal description in a prime that highlights aspects of improved control and management. Findings from a conjoint experiment further indicate that respondents favour policies aimed at shifting from irregular toward orderly immigration pathways, rather than endorsing the most restrictive policy options. Support for the reform proposal is remarkably consistent across diverse societal groups – including some that are typically highly polarized on immigration issues.