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Baumol Revisitado: Que Futuro Para O Peso Do Sector Da Saúde Em Portugal?

Author

Listed:
  • Jalles, Joao Tovar
  • Salvado, Joao Cotter

Abstract

A “Doença de Baumol” refere que o baixo crescimento da produtividade no sector da saúde e a uniformidade dos salários da economia como um todo, fazem com que os custos neste sector, dito “estagnado”, sejam inevitavelmente crescentes o longo do tempo. Este facto coloca uma pressão real acrescida na sustentabilidade dos Orçamentos de Estado na generalidade dos países desenvolvidos, que é difícil de resolver e para o qual se torna urgente desenvolver métodos de análise e solução eficazes. Concretamente, partindo de hipóteses cruciais, a fracção de despesa pública em saúde em Portugal, poderá atingir 9,5% do PIB já em 2010 e 20,9% do mesmo em 2030. Dado que não se põe a hipótese de conter custos baixando a qualidade dos cuidados médicos proporcionados pelo sector público, os dois caminhos mais plausíveis no curto prazo, são aumentar a eficiência ou incrementar o financiamento e provisão pelo sector privado e outras instituições de cariz social. JEL codes: I10, I18, I19, H51, O33

Suggested Citation

  • Jalles, Joao Tovar & Salvado, Joao Cotter, 2008. "Baumol Revisitado: Que Futuro Para O Peso Do Sector Da Saúde Em Portugal?," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp533, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia.
  • Handle: RePEc:unl:unlfep:wp533
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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