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Persistence in the short and long term tourist arrivals to Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

    (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Navarra)

  • Carlos P. Barros

    (Instituto de Economia e Gestao, Technical University of Lisbon)

  • Albert Assaf

    (Centre for Tourism and Services Research, Victoria University, Australia)

Abstract

This study examines the persistence in the international monthly tourist arrivals to Australia by using a variety of models based on fractional integration and seasonal autoregressions. The results based on disaggregated monthly data indicated that the series are on average mean reverting, though highly persistent, and present intense seasonal patterns. A forecasting performance of several competing models was also conducted where it was concluded that the models based on long range dependence outperform others more standard based on non-seasonal and seasonal unit roots. The model based on long memory at zero and the seasonal frequencies seems to be the most accurate in this context. More detailed analysis of the results are also derived.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis A. Gil-Alana & Carlos P. Barros & Albert Assaf, 2010. "Persistence in the short and long term tourist arrivals to Australia," Faculty Working Papers 02/10, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  • Handle: RePEc:una:unccee:wp0210
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    File URL: http://www.unav.edu/documents/10174/6546776/1265712485_WP_UNAV_02_10.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Hongru Zhang & Yang Yang, 2019. "Prescribing for the tourism-induced Dutch disease: A DSGE analysis of subsidy policies," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(6), pages 942-963, September.
    2. Dimitrios TSIOTAS & Thomas KRABOKOUKIS & Serafeim POLYZOS, 2020. "Detecting Interregional Patterns In Tourism Seasonality Of Greece: A Principal Components Analysis Approach," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 91-112, June.
    3. Dimitrios Tsiotas & Thomas Krabokoukis & Serafeim Polyzos, 2021. "Detecting Tourism Typologies of Regional Destinations Based on Their Spatio-Temporal and Socioeconomic Performance: A Correlation-Based Complex Network Approach for the Case of Greece," Tourism and Hospitality, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-27, February.
    4. Twila-Mae Logan & Eritha Huntley Lewis & Clive Scott, 2016. "A Time Series Analysis of the Impact of International Sporting Events on International Arrivals: Melbourne, Australia and Jamaica," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(6), pages 267-267, June.

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