IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

High Heterogeneous Information and Investment under Uncertainty



A sudden change in investment environment shifts objective uncertainty (characterized by parameters that determine the distribution of returns) and at the same time heightens subjective uncertainty (about the data generating parameters) unevenly across investors. For a given state of economy, the uncertainty facing the investor is the sum of the uncertainty in the data and the uncertainty of the investors assessment of the expected return distribution. In this model the option value of waiting to invest depends not only on the objective uncertainty as in the traditional theory but varies systematically with investor information and Bayesian updating of outlook for the project. Simulation of the model suggests that during a state characterized by greater uncertainty and higher potential expected return investment will be by an abnormally high percentage of informed investors and may increase overall. For over 10,000 instances of firm-level FDI data for Korea from 1996 to 2001, regression results are consistent with the hypothesis that disproportionably more FDI is made by experienced (hence more informed) investors during heightened uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Shawn Ni & Ronald Ratti, 2007. "High Heterogeneous Information and Investment under Uncertainty," Working Papers 0709, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
  • Handle: RePEc:umc:wpaper:0709

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item


    uncertainty; investor information; option value; Bayesian updating; FDI;

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:umc:wpaper:0709. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Valerie Kulp). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.