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Apertura, productividad y gasto agregado: un modelo de fundamentos del tipo de cambio real

Listed author(s):
  • Juan Benítez


    (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración.)

  • Gabriela Mordecki


    (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)

The Uruguayan economy has undergone over the past two decades an important growth process, together with a real appreciation of the domestic currency. This implied that the Real Exchange Rate (RER), calculated as TP/NTP, experienced important changes. From this phenomenon, this paper examines the evolution of the price competitiveness of the economy in light of the possible presence of "Balassa-Smuelson Effect" and a change in the economy's pattern of international integration, in a context of income growth and aggregate expenditure, through the methodology proposed by Johansen. Thus, we found a long-term relationship between the RER, the differential in labor productivity between the Uruguayan and U.S. economies, goods extra-regional exports and the economy's consumption. Furthermore, we found that the elasticities of RER to its long-term fundamentals lie in line with the theory and concludes that the equilibrium real exchange rate has fallen in the last two decades due to the movement of its fundamentals.

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Paper provided by Instituto de Economía - IECON in its series Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) with number 12-19.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2012
Handle: RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-19-12
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