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Apertura, productividad y gasto agregado: un modelo de fundamentos del tipo de cambio real


  • Juan Benítez

    () (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración.)

  • Gabriela Mordecki

    () (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)


The Uruguayan economy has undergone over the past two decades an important growth process, together with a real appreciation of the domestic currency. This implied that the Real Exchange Rate (RER), calculated as TP/NTP, experienced important changes. From this phenomenon, this paper examines the evolution of the price competitiveness of the economy in light of the possible presence of "Balassa-Smuelson Effect" and a change in the economy's pattern of international integration, in a context of income growth and aggregate expenditure, through the methodology proposed by Johansen. Thus, we found a long-term relationship between the RER, the differential in labor productivity between the Uruguayan and U.S. economies, goods extra-regional exports and the economy's consumption. Furthermore, we found that the elasticities of RER to its long-term fundamentals lie in line with the theory and concludes that the equilibrium real exchange rate has fallen in the last two decades due to the movement of its fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Benítez & Gabriela Mordecki, 2012. "Apertura, productividad y gasto agregado: un modelo de fundamentos del tipo de cambio real," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 12-19, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
  • Handle: RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-19-12

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    Real exchange rate; Cointegration; Fundamentals;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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