IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ulp/sbbeta/2018-34.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Technological change and economic development: endogenous and exogenous fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Marianna Epicoco

Abstract

This paper aims at exploring the endogenous and exogenous forces that determine long-run fluctuations of innovative and economic activity. It proposes that technological paradigm shifts, structural change and major fluctuations of production are the result of the same endogenous process. This is defined as a co-evolutionary process between technological and economic variables based on cumulative multiplier and accelerator feedback effects between investments in innovation and demand. Exogenous factors are supposed to act upon this endogenous process, influencing the length and amplitude of fluctuations. This framework contributes to extant literature as it envisages an explicit endogenous mechanism explaining cyclical fluctuations of innovative and economic activity, and, at the same time, incorporates exogenous factors. Moreover, by combining the Schumpeterian analyses of innovation dynamics with the multiplier and accelerator effects coming from Keynesian theories, the framework integrates the impact of technological variables on economic activity and vice versa. To provide a preliminary supporting evidence, we have fitted the ICT cycle and the economic cycle to patent and productivity data, respectively. Our results suggest that the growth potential of ICT could be declining. This situation may represent an important opportunity, for public policy and socioinstitutional actors, to orient future development toward socially desirable directions.

Suggested Citation

  • Marianna Epicoco, 2018. "Technological change and economic development: endogenous and exogenous fluctuations," Working Papers of BETA 2018-34, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  • Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2018-34
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.beta-umr7522.fr/productions/publications/2018/2018-34.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    Keywords

    technological paradigm shift; structural change; economic fluctuations; co-evolution; productivity slowdown; ICT.;

    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2018-34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bestrfr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.