Mapping visions of a just transition: A Q survey of Belgian stakeholders

The appropriation of the increasingly popular concept of ‘just transition’ by a wide range of actors has contributed to the emergence of plural and often competing conceptions. This research provides an original empirical contribution by systematically mapping visions of just transition among stakeholders in Belgium, one of the EU's top consumption-based CO₂ emitters, marked by institutional fragmentation and persistent political conflict. More specifically, it aims to identify contrasting visions of a just transition, the stakeholders who support them, and the areas of consensus and dissensus. Based on a Q survey with 29 stakeholders, we distinguish three ideal-typical visions of a just transition: the Holistic, the Workers-Centred, and the Social-Ecological State visions. These are complemented by a fourth, the Pragmatic Business-Centred vision, derived from the analysis of secondary sources. Cross-analysis of the four visions through the lens of the energy justice framework reveals contrasting perspectives on distributional, procedural, and recognitional justice. In doing so, the research offers a novel analytical approach to unpack the normative foundations of just transition debates and addresses a major gap in the literature, which still lacks empirically grounded and systematic accounts of how different actors conceive just transition – particularly in contexts beyond coal-dependent regions. In addition to its analytical value, this research also has practical implications: by identifying both cleavages and common ground, it can foster mutual understanding, facilitate dialogue, enable coalition-building across differences, and ultimately promote forms of political consensus capable of underpinning politically robust and democratically grounded just transition policies.