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Stochastic Convergence in the Euro Area

Author

Listed:
  • Giorgio Canarella

    (California State University, Los Angeles, and University of Nevada, Las Vegas)

  • Stephen M. Miller

    (University of Connecticut and University of Nevada, Las Vegas)

  • Stephen K. Pollard

    (California State University, Los Angeles)

Abstract

We investigate the dynamics of stochastic convergence of the original Euro Area countries for inflation rates, nominal interest rates, and real interest rates. We test for convergence relative to Germany, taken as the benchmark for core EU standards, using monthly data over the period January 2001 to September 2010. We examine, in a time-series framework, three different profiles of the convergence process: linear convergence, nonlinear convergence, and linear segmented convergence. Our findings both contradict and support convergence. Stochastic convergence implies the rejection of a unit root in the inflation rate, nominal interest rate, and real interest rate differentials. We find that the differentials are consistent with a unit-root hypothesis when the alternative hypothesis is I(0) with a linear trend. But we frequently, but not always, reject the unit-root hypothesis when the alternative is I(0) with a broken trend. We also note that the current financial crisis plays a significant role in dating the breaks.

Suggested Citation

  • Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2010. "Stochastic Convergence in the Euro Area," Working papers 2010-32, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2010-32
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    Cited by:

    1. Chung-Fu Lai & Shan-Kai Tsa, 2015. "Diversified Currency Holdings and Exchange Rate Dynamics," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 678-689.
    2. Gulbahar UCLER & Hale KIRMIZIOGLU, 2015. "The Reasons of Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis and an Empirical Analysis over Permanency of the Crisis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 86-96.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stochastic convergence; Nonlinearity; Unit-root tests; Structural breaks.;

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General

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