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Conundrum or Complication: A Study of Yield Curve Dynamics under Unusual Economic Conditions and Monetary Policies

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Cripwell

    (School of Business, University College Dublin)

  • David Edelman

    (School of Business, University College Dublin)

Abstract

The definition of the decline of long term yields in the light of increasing short term yields as a conundrum by Chairman Greenspan in February 2005 has generated a significant amount of research. This paper presents a study of yield curve dynamics over this period using economic surprise data as the diagnostic tool. Results are presented for both US and Japanese data which indicate a non-linear response of the yield curve to economic data and monetary policy over the period in question. Further, a limited model is presented that is consistent with the observations. This can lead to an explanation of the conundrum in terms of a non-linear yield response to expected long term inflation and a variable expected long term real rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Cripwell & David Edelman, 2010. "Conundrum or Complication: A Study of Yield Curve Dynamics under Unusual Economic Conditions and Monetary Policies," Working Papers 200836, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucd:wpaper:200836
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    File URL: http://www.ucd.ie/geary/static/publications/workingpapers/gearywp200836.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    federal reserve; term structure of interest rates; inflation;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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