IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

The Dynamics of Permanent and Transitory Components in International Business Cycles

Listed author(s):
  • Shushanik Papanyan


    (Department of Economics, University of Texaas at Arlington)

The paper investigates the dynamics of permanent and transitory components that are common across seven developed nations of the world. The common components are modeled to exhibit different behavior in the expansion and recession phases of international business cycles. I employ a multivariate unobserved components model with Markov regime switching to measure the common components of international time series. The model is estimated in its state-space representation by applying the Kalman filter and Kim’s (1994) approximate maximum likelihood algorithm. I find that, in contrast to individual country’s business cycles, the international business cycle does not exhibit classical contraction and expansion phases. The international permanent component has two phases: a high-growth phase and a low-growth phase, and there is no evidence of an international transitory component. I find that the switch from a high-growth regime to a low-growth regime occurs in the second quarter of 1973. There are no further switches that occur from one regime to another. I also find that among the seven developed nations examined, Japan is the most sensitive and Germany is the least sensitive to international permanent shocks.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
File Function: First version, 2004
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Texas at Arlington, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0504.

in new window

Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Handle: RePEc:txa:wpaper:0504
Contact details of provider: Postal:
309 Business Bldg., Box 19479, Arlington, Tx 76013

Phone: (817) 272-3061
Fax: (817) 272-3145
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:txa:wpaper:0504. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shushanik Papanyan)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.