IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/toh/tupdaa/14.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Aging Tax on Potential Growth in Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Tran Quang-Thanh

Abstract

Population aging is becoming a prominent issue in Asia, especially for developing countries where demographic changes have asserted a downward pressure on the rate of growth. This paper refers to such potential unwanted effects as an "aging tax" and analytically examines them from a neoclassical perspective, using a Diamond-type overlapping generations model with endogenous retirement, survival rate, and old worker productivity. Based on this setup, negative impacts exist if too many old workers that are sufficiently unproductive choose to defer retirement under the aging pressure, which drains resources from future generations. Numerical simulations show that an aging tax can reduce the potential per capita growth rate (technologyadjusted) by up to 0.12 percentage points annually for some countries in Asia. Our results highlight that countries with sufficiently large labor shares (due to a high ratio of self-employment or a manual labor-centric production) and inadequate educational attainment are potentially the most sensitive and vulnerable to population aging.

Suggested Citation

  • Tran Quang-Thanh, 2022. "The Aging Tax on Potential Growth in Asia," TUPD Discussion Papers 14, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
  • Handle: RePEc:toh:tupdaa:14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10097/00135200
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    2. Philippe Michel & Pierre Pestieau, 2013. "Social Security And Early Retirement In An Overlapping-Generations Growth Model," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(2), pages 723-737, November.
    3. Luca Gori & Luciano Fanti, 2008. "Longevity and PAYG pension systems sustainability," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 10(2), pages 1-8.
    4. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
    5. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc74-1, October.
    6. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2008. "A One‐Sector Neoclassical Growth Model With Endogenous Retirement," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 139-155, June.
    7. Miyazaki, Koichi, 2014. "Optimal pay-as-you-go social security when retirement is endogenous and labor productivity depreciates," MPRA Paper 61166, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), 2011. "Population Aging and the Generational Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13816.
    9. Bound, John & Schoenbaum, Michael & Stinebrickner, Todd R. & Waidmann, Timothy, 1999. "The dynamic effects of health on the labor force transitions of older workers," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 179-202, June.
    10. David de la Croix & Matthias Doepke, 2003. "Inequality and Growth: Why Differential Fertility Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1091-1113, September.
    11. Andrew Mason & Ronald Lee, 2011. "Population aging and the generational economy: key findings," Chapters, in: Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), Population Aging and the Generational Economy, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Rosa Aísa & Fernando Pueyo & Marcos Sanso, 2012. "Life expectancy and labor supply of the elderly," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 545-568, January.
    13. Psacharopoulos, George, 1994. "Returns to investment in education: A global update," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 1325-1343, September.
    14. Akira Yakita, 2017. "Life Expectancy, the Labor Supply of the Elderly and Fertility," Population Economics, in: Population Aging, Fertility and Social Security, chapter 0, pages 27-42, Springer.
    15. Keisuke Otsu & Katsuyuki Shibayama, 2016. "Population Aging and Potential Growth in Asia," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(2), pages 56-73, September.
    16. Klaus Prettner, 2013. "Population aging and endogenous economic growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 811-834, April.
    17. Marta Guerriero, 2019. "The Labor Share of Income Around the World: Evidence from a Panel Dataset," ADB Institute Series on Development Economics, in: Gary Fields & Saumik Paul (ed.), Labor Income Share in Asia, chapter 0, pages 39-79, Springer.
    18. Hu, Sheng Cheng, 1979. "Social Security, the Supply of Labor, and Capital Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 274-283, June.
    19. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:10:y:2008:i:2:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Vegard Skirbekk, 2004. "Age and Individual Productivity: A Literature Survey," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 2(1), pages 133-154.
    21. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 2007. "Long-Run Changes in the Wage Structure: Narrowing, Widening, Polarizing," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(2), pages 135-168.
    22. Miyazaki, Koichi, 2019. "Optimal Pay-As-You-Go Social Security With Endogenous Retirement," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 870-887, March.
    23. Charles I. Jones, 1997. "On the Evolution of the World Income Distribution," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 19-36, Summer.
    24. Hirazawa, Makoto & Yakita, Akira, 2017. "Labor supply of elderly people, fertility, and economic development," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 75-96.
    25. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    26. Bielecki, Marcin & Goraus, Karolina & Hagemejer, Jan & Tyrowicz, Joanna, 2016. "Decreasing fertility vs increasing longevity: Raising the retirement age in the context of ageing processes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 125-143.
    27. Hansen, Casper Worm & Lønstrup, Lars, 2009. "The optimal legal retirement age in an OLG model with endogenous labour supply," Discussion Papers on Economics 5/2009, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hirono, Makoto & Mino, Kazuo, 2019. "Pension, Retirement, and Growth in the Presence Heterogeneous Elderly," MPRA Paper 98096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Hirono, Makoto & Mino, Kazuo, 2020. "Pension Reforms, Population Aging, and Retirement Decision of the Elderly in a Neoclassical Growth Model," MPRA Paper 102467, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Cipriani, Giam Pietro & Fioroni, Tamara, 2023. "Human Capital and Pensions with Endogenous Fertility and Retirement," IZA Discussion Papers 16029, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Chen Hung-Ju & Miyazaki Koichi, 2022. "Pay-as-You-Go Social Security and Educational Subsidy in an Overlapping Generations Model with Endogenous Fertility and Endogenous Retirement," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(2), pages 787-820, June.
    5. Jaimes, Richard & Westerhout, Ed, 2023. "Optimal policies in an ageing society," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    6. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Kotschy, Rainer & Prettner, Klaus & Schünemann, Johannes, 2024. "Health and economic growth: Reconciling the micro and macro evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    7. Gehringer, Agnieszka & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "Longevity And Technological Change," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1471-1503, June.
    8. Quamrul H. Ashraf & David N. Weil & Joshua Wilde, 2013. "The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(1), pages 97-130, March.
    9. Theodore R. Breton & Andrew S. Breton, 2021. "Growth in a macro‐Mincer model: Good results with schooling and experience interactions," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 563-581, May.
    10. Cipriani, Giam Pietro & Fioroni, Tamara, 2022. "Social security and endogenous demographic change: child support and retirement policies," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 307-325, July.
    11. Cipriani, Giam Pietro & Fioroni, Tamara, 2021. "Endogenous Demographic Change, Retirement, And Social Security," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 609-631, April.
    12. Lee, R., 2016. "Macroeconomics, Aging, and Growth," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 59-118, Elsevier.
    13. Thomas Flochel & Yuki Ikeda & Harry Moroz & Nithin Umapathi, 2014. "Macroeconomic Implications of Aging in East Asia Pacific," World Bank Publications - Reports 23026, The World Bank Group.
    14. Campbell, Susanna G. & Üngör, Murat, 2020. "Revisiting human capital and aggregate income differences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 43-64.
    15. Mónica L. Azevedo & Óscar Afonso & Sandra T. Silva, 2017. "Endogenous Growth and Intellectual Property Rights: A North–South Modelling Proposal with Population Ageing," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 72-94, March.
    16. Hippolyte d’ALBIS & Dalal MOOSA, 2015. "Generational Economics and the National Transfer Accounts," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(4), pages 409-441, December.
    17. Hung-ju Chen & Koichi Miyazaki, 2020. "Labor productivity, labor supply of the old, and economic growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 277-285.
    18. Aisa, Rosa & Larramona, Gemma & Pueyo, Fernando, 2015. "Active aging, preventive health and dependency: Heterogeneous workers, differential behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1-9.
    19. Karine Constant, 2015. "Environmental Policy and Inequality: A Matter of Life and Death," AMSE Working Papers 1527, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    20. Abrigo, Michael R.M. & Racelis, Rachel H. & Salas, J.M. Ian & Herrin, Alejandro N., 2016. "Decomposing economic gains from population age structure transition in the Philippines," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 19-27.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:toh:tupdaa:14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tohoku University Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fetohjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.