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The EU or National Reform Program for Turkey: Does the Political Feasibility Depend on the EU's Absorption Capacity?


  • Hasan Ersel
  • Fatih Ozatay


Concerns of the EU countries on Turkey’s membership are summarized by the term ‘EU’s absorption capacity’. This implies that Turkey may end up as a member of the EU or may not. Even the reform process can abruptly come to an end due to reasons irrespective of the performance of Turkey. In a two-sector model, we show that despite this uncertainty, if before the start of the reform program a ‘no’ is perceived as less likely, the EU-reform will be supported ex-ante. However, a ‘no’ at the midst of the EU reform program can block the reform process ex-post, since both of the sectors suddenly find themselves in a position that they should have not accepted beforehand. Moreover, such a situation can render continuing with the alternative national reform program very hard.
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  • Hasan Ersel & Fatih Ozatay, 2009. "The EU or National Reform Program for Turkey: Does the Political Feasibility Depend on the EU's Absorption Capacity?," Working Papers 0902, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:tob:wpaper:0902

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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