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The EU or National Reform Program for Turkey: Does the Political Feasibility Depend on the EU's Absorption Capacity?

  • Hasan Ersel
  • Fatih Ozatay

Concerns of the EU countries on Turkey’s membership are summarized by the term ‘EU’s absorption capacity’. This implies that Turkey may end up as a member of the EU or may not. Even the reform process can abruptly come to an end due to reasons irrespective of the performance of Turkey. In a two-sector model, we show that despite this uncertainty, if before the start of the reform program a ‘no’ is perceived as less likely, the EU-reform will be supported ex-ante. However, a ‘no’ at the midst of the EU reform program can block the reform process ex-post, since both of the sectors suddenly find themselves in a position that they should have not accepted beforehand. Moreover, such a situation can render continuing with the alternative national reform program very hard.

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Paper provided by TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0902.

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Date of creation: Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:tob:wpaper:0902
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