IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcb/wpaper/2619.html

Google Searches, House Prices and Transactions: Signs of Regime Dependence around Turkiye’s Monetary Tightening

Author

Listed:
  • Altug Aydemir
  • Ali Sevim

Abstract

Do Google searches provide a stable real-time signal for housing markets? Using a composite of housing queries for Türkiye over 2021:M6–2026:M5, we find that the answer depends on the regime and the market margin. The composite tracks real house-price growth strongly during the negative-real-rate boom (0.046, t = 7.1); after the 2023:M7 tightening pivot the association attenuates to −0.003 (t = −0.2), or 0.022 (t = 2.8) with inflation controlled, less than half its boom value. Search–transaction associations are positive after the pivot but otherwise depend on the transformation. Pseudo-real-time nowcast gains for prices are confined to the boom once the post-pivot level shift is allowed for, and none arise for transactions. Search thus behaves as a regime-contingent indicator, not a stable forecasting tool.

Suggested Citation

  • Altug Aydemir & Ali Sevim, 2026. "Google Searches, House Prices and Transactions: Signs of Regime Dependence around Turkiye’s Monetary Tightening," Working Papers 2619, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2619
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Research/Working+Paperss/2026/26-19
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2619. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sermet Pekin or Ilker Cakar or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tcmgvtr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.