The Labor Market in Times of Natural Disaster: Unequal Impacts of Türkiye’s 2023 Earthquakes

This paper studies the labor market consequences of the devastating February 2023 Kahramanmaraþ earthquakes in Türkiye at the individual level. We combine firm-level financial statements with matched employer–employee data and track workers over a five-year period spanning both the pre- and post-disaster years. Causal effects are identified using a difference-in-differences strategy complemented by an event-study design. The results show that the earthquakes increased labor market exits by 2.5 percentage points, prolonged exits by 3 percentage points, and inter-provincial job transitions by 2 percentage points, while reducing annual wage growth of affected workers by 2.6 percent. Labor market impacts vary across worker and firm characteristics and intensify with earthquake severity. Losses were more pronounced among workers in smaller firms, in lower-wage jobs, and with less experience, as well as among women overall. By contrast, construction workers and inter-provincial movers saw relative gains. We also find sharper employment and wage declines among workers in high-leverage firms, rural areas, and sectors more likely to be affected by post-disaster demand conditions, highlighting key mechanisms behind differences in labor market resilience.