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Turkiye Icin Getiri Egrileri Kullanilarak Enflasyon Telafisi Tahmin Edilmesi

Listed author(s):
  • Murat Duran
  • Eda Gulsen
  • Refet Gurkaynak

Reel ve nominal getirilerin kiyaslanmasiyla elde edilen enflasyon telafisi enflasyon beklentileri ve enflasyon risklerinin fiyatlanmasina iliskin piyasa bazli, gercek zamanli bilgi icerir. Bu calismada, nominal ve reel getiri egrileri tahmin edilerek Turkiye icin enflasyon telafisi hesaplanmistir. Bu sekilde hesaplanan enflasyon telafisi vade yapisindaki degisikliklerin para otoritesinin kredibilitesine dair verdigi bilgi vaka calismalari ile aciga cikarilmistir. Calismada, Turkiye icin hesaplanan enflasyon telafilerinin uzerinde likidite kosullarinin gunluk frekansta kayda deger bir etkisinin olmadigi belirlenmis, dolayisiyla enflasyon surprizleri, para politikasi kararlari ve iletisimi gibi cesitli vakalarin enflasyon telafisi uzerindeki etkilerinin buyuk olcude enflasyon beklentileri ve belirsizliginin fiyatlanmasinda meydana gelen degismelere atfedilebilecegi gosterilmistir.

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Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 1122.

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Date of creation: 2011
Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1122
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