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The Role of Monetary Policy in Turkey during the Global Financial Crisis (Kuresel Kriz Doneminde Turkiye'de Para Politikasinin Rolu)

Author

Listed:
  • Harun Alp
  • Selim Elekdag

Abstract

As an emerging economy, Turkey is an interesting case study because it was one of the hardest hit countries by the crisis, with a year-over-year contraction of 15 percent during the first quarter of 2009. At the same time, anticipating the fallout from the crisis, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) decreased policy rates by an astounding 1025 basis points over the November 2008 to November 2009 period. In this context, this paper addresses the following broad question: If an inflation targeting framework underpinned by a flexible exchange rate regime was not adopted, how much deeper would the recent recession have been? Taking the most intense year of the crisis as our baseline, namely 2009, counterfactual simulations indicate that rather than the actual contraction of �4.8 percent, the growth outturn would have been �6.2 percent if the CBRT had not implemented countercyclical and discretionary interest rate cuts. Further, if a fixed exchange rate regime was instead in place, then the counterfactual simulations indicate a growth rate of �8.0 percent in 2009. In other words, the interest rate cuts implemented by the CBRT and exchange rate flexibility both helped substantially soften the impact of the global financial crisis. These counterfactual experiments are based on an estimated structural model which along with standard nominal and real rigidities, include a financial accelerator mechanism in an open-economy framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Harun Alp & Selim Elekdag, 2011. "The Role of Monetary Policy in Turkey during the Global Financial Crisis (Kuresel Kriz Doneminde Turkiye'de Para Politikasinin Rolu)," Working Papers 1110, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1110
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Accelerator; Bayesian Estimation; DSGE Model; Financial Crises; Sudden Stops; Monetary Policy; Turkey; Emerging Economies; Emerging Markets;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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