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Economic Uncertanity and Money Demand Stability in Turkey (Turkiye'de Ekonomik Belirsizlik ve Para Talebinin Istikrari)


  • K. Azim Ozdemir
  • Mesut Saygili


The monetary authorities of emerging market economies tend to emphasize the studies that find instabilities in the money demand functions and use them as the main pretext for formulating monetary policy strategies in which monetary aggregates play no prominent role. In this study, however, we attempt to understand the causes of instabilities in the conventional money demand models by accounting for the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on money holdings. Our results suggest that money balances, income and interest spread are not cointegrated when the VAR system is missing a measure of economic uncertainty. Thus, we find stable long run relations and coefficients when the correct measures of uncertainty are introduced to the system.

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  • K. Azim Ozdemir & Mesut Saygili, 2010. "Economic Uncertanity and Money Demand Stability in Turkey (Turkiye'de Ekonomik Belirsizlik ve Para Talebinin Istikrari)," Working Papers 1015, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1015

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    Money Demand; Parameter Constancy; Cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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