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Turkiye’de Asiri Kredi Genislemeleri

Listed author(s):
  • Mahir Binici
  • Bulent Koksal

[TR] Bu calismada Aralik 2002 sonrasi icin Turkiye’de banka kredilerindeki asiri genisleme donemleri alternatif kredi olçutleri dikkate alinarak tanimlanmakta ve soz konusu genislemelerle iliskili olan faktorler belirlenmektedir. Ozellikle getiri egrisindeki degisimler, reel doviz kuru, ABD faiz orani ve net sermaye girisleri ile asiri kredi genislemesi olasiligi arasinda guclu bir iliski bulunmustur. Sonuclar, bu faktorlerin finansal istikrari tehdit edebilecek asiri kredi genislemelerinin tahmininde onemli unsurlar olarak goz onune alinmasi gerektigini gostermektedir. [EN] By using different credit measures, this study identifies the credit booms in Turkey that have occurred after December 2002, and examines the related factors with these events. We find that the factors that have a strong correlation with the probability of a credit boom are the changes in the slope of the yield curve, reel exchange rate, US interest rate and net capital inflows. The results imply that these factors should be considered as important elements in forecasting such events that could threaten financial stability.

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Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series CBT Research Notes in Economics with number 1215.

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Date of creation: 2012
Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1215
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