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Turkiye’de Asiri Kredi Genislemeleri

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  • Mahir Binici
  • Bulent Koksal

Abstract

[TR] Bu calismada Aralik 2002 sonrasi icin Turkiye’de banka kredilerindeki asiri genisleme donemleri alternatif kredi olçutleri dikkate alinarak tanimlanmakta ve soz konusu genislemelerle iliskili olan faktorler belirlenmektedir. Ozellikle getiri egrisindeki degisimler, reel doviz kuru, ABD faiz orani ve net sermaye girisleri ile asiri kredi genislemesi olasiligi arasinda guclu bir iliski bulunmustur. Sonuclar, bu faktorlerin finansal istikrari tehdit edebilecek asiri kredi genislemelerinin tahmininde onemli unsurlar olarak goz onune alinmasi gerektigini gostermektedir. [EN] By using different credit measures, this study identifies the credit booms in Turkey that have occurred after December 2002, and examines the related factors with these events. We find that the factors that have a strong correlation with the probability of a credit boom are the changes in the slope of the yield curve, reel exchange rate, US interest rate and net capital inflows. The results imply that these factors should be considered as important elements in forecasting such events that could threaten financial stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahir Binici & Bulent Koksal, 2012. "Turkiye’de Asiri Kredi Genislemeleri," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1215, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1215
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Tugrul Gurgur & Fethi Ogunc, 2008. "Kuresel Isinma, Kuresellesme ve Gida Krizi - Turkiye'de Islenmis Gida Fiyatlari Uzerine Ampirik Bir Calisma," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 8(2), pages 1-32.
    2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Fethi Ogunc, 2010. "Turkiye'de Islenmemis Gida Enflasyonunda Oynaklik : Durum Tespiti," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1005, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. M. Utku Ozmen & Orhun Sevinc, 2011. "Price Rigidity In Turkey : Evidence From Micro Data," Working Papers 1125, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    5. Oguz Atuk & M. Utku Ozmen & Orhun Sevinc, 2013. "Treatment of Seasonal Products and CPI Volatility," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 13(1), pages 51-82.
    6. Oguz Atuk & Orhun Sevinc, 2010. "TUFE'de Sabit ve Degisken Agirlik Sistemi Yaklasimlari: Turkiye Taze Meyve-Sebze Fiyatlari Uzerine Bir Uygulama," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1015, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
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