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Loud and clear? Can we hear when the SARB speaks?

Author

Listed:
  • Monique Reid

    (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)

  • Stan du Plessis

    (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)

Abstract

Inflation targeting is a forward-looking framework for monetary policy that has brought unprecedented transparency to the process of monetary policy. This paper aims to assess the degree to which the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has, since the introduction of inflation targeting, successfully communicated to the public its policy analysis, and, in particular, the expected future policy changes. This paper follows international literature (Rosa and Verga (2007), Ehrmann and Fratszcher (2005)) in constructing a numerical index that is used to reflect the information content of the SARB’s communications, specifically the monetary policy statements that accompanied each of the MPC meetings since 2000. Relating this index to subsequent policy decisions reveals the informativeness of the index and, by implication, the informativeness of the underlying monetary policy statements. This method allows us to judge, systematically, the degree to which the MPC has communicated successfully, and the evolution of that success over the past nine years. We find evidence that the MPC has succeeded in signalling their likely future policy decision with consistency over this period.

Suggested Citation

  • Monique Reid & Stan du Plessis, 2010. "Loud and clear? Can we hear when the SARB speaks?," Working Papers 11/2010, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers110
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    Cited by:

    1. Tumisang Loate & Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Nicola Viegi, 2021. "Sailing into the Wind evaluating the near future of Monetary Policy in South Africa," Working Papers 11006, South African Reserve Bank.
    2. Alberto Coco & Nicola Viegi, 2020. "The monetary policy of the South African Reserve Bank stance communication and credibility," Working Papers 10024, South African Reserve Bank.
    3. Reid, Monique & Siklos, Pierre & Guetterman, Timothy & Du Plessis, Stan, 2021. "The role of financial journalists in the expectations channel of the monetary transmission mechanism," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    4. Tatiana Lysenko & Geoff Barnard, 2011. "Strengthening the Macroeconomic Policy Framework in South Africa," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 847, OECD Publishing.
    5. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2020. "Building Credibility and Influencing Expectations The Evolution of Central Bank Communication," Working Papers 10144, South African Reserve Bank.
    6. R. Erasmus & H. Hollander, 2020. "A Forward Guidance Indicator For The South African Reserve Bank: Implementing A Text Analysis Algorithm," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(3), pages 41-72, December.
    7. Arnold Segawa, 2021. "Sentimental Outlook for the Monetary Policies of South African Reserve Bank," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 10(3), pages 37-56, July.
    8. Kasai, Ndahiriwe & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2011. "Evaluating the forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear monetary policy rules for South Africa," MPRA Paper 40699, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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