Modelling Underlying Energy Demand Trends and Stochastic Seasonality: An Econometric Analysis of Transport Oil Demand in the UK and Japan
This paper demonstrates the importance of adequately modelling the Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT) and seasonality when estimating transportation oil demand for the UK and Japan. The structural time series model is therefore employed to allow for a stochastic underlying trend and stochastic seasonals using quarterly data from the early 1970s, for both the UK and Japan. It is found that the stochastic seasonals are preferred to the conventional deterministic dummies and, more importantly, the UEDT is found to be highly nonlinear for both countries, with periods where it is both upward and downward sloping.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in The Energy Journal, 24(3), 2003, pp. 63-96. (Revised Version with different title)|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Guildford, Surrey GU2 5XH, UK|
Phone: +44(0)1483 686956
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Web page: http://www.seec.surrey.ac.uk
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