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Testing Rational Expectations in Vector Autoregressive Models




Assuming that the solutions of a set of restrictions on the rational expectations of future values can be represented as a vector autoregressive model, we study the implied restrictions on the coefficients. Nonstationary behavior of the variables is allowed, and the restrictions on the cointegration relationships are spelled out. In some interesting special cases it is shown that the likelihood ratio statistic can easily be computed.

Suggested Citation

  • Søren Johansen & Anders Rygh Swensen, 1994. "Testing Rational Expectations in Vector Autoregressive Models," Discussion Papers 129, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:129

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1993. "Reducing U.S. carbon dioxide emissions: an assessment of different instruments," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 15(5-6), pages 491-520.
    2. Clarete, Ramon L. & Whalley, John, 1987. "Comparing the marginal welfare costs of commodity and trade taxes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 357-362, August.
    3. Alan S. Manne & Richard G. Richels, 1991. "Global CO2 Emission Reductions - the Impacts of Rising Energy Costs," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 87-108.
    4. D. W. Barns & J. A. Edmonds & J. M. Reilly, 1992. "Use of the Edmonds-Reilly Model to Model Energy-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 113, OECD Publishing.
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    More about this item


    VAR-models; cointegration; rational expectations.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models


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