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Trois questions autour de l'impact à court terme des variations du prix du pétrole sur la croissance française

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Heyer

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Paul Hubert

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Abstract

Ce travail évalue différentes caractéristiques de l’impact de l’évolution du prix du baril de pétrole sur l’activité économique en France. Nous montrons qu’il existe un décalage de cet impact sur le PIB, qui serait en moyenne, sur la période 1985-2015, de 4 trimestres. L’effet, à la baisse comme la hausse, n’est significatif que pour des variations des prix du pétrole supérieures à 1 écart-type. L’effet asymétrique est extrêmement faible : l’effet est identique dans le cas d’une hausse ou d’une baisse de ce dernier.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Heyer & Paul Hubert, 2016. "Trois questions autour de l'impact à court terme des variations du prix du pétrole sur la croissance française," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/3om14ej4d58, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3om14ej4d58i6bjcohif0keeqs
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    Keywords

    Pétrole; Décalage; Inertie; Non-linéarité au cycle; Asymétrie;

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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