Trois questions autour de l’impact à court terme des variations du prix du pétrole sur la croissance française
This work assesses different characteristics of the impact of changes in oil prices on economic activity in France. We show that there are lags in the impact on GDP, which are on average over the period 1985-2015, of 4 quarters. The effect, for both increases and decreases, is significant only for variations in oil prices above 1 standard deviation. The asymmetric effect is extremely low and is similar for increases and decreases. Only the speed of adjustment differs (3 quarters for increases versus 4 for decreases). Finally, the effect depends on the business cycle: it is higher when the economy is in a state of moderate growth (low economic activity). The results of this study thus indicates that the effect of the oil price shock is coming and should start during the first quarter of 2016. JEL classification: Q43, E32.
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