IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trois questions autour de l’impact à court terme des variations du prix du pétrole sur la croissance française


  • Éric Heyer
  • Paul Hubert


This work assesses different characteristics of the impact of changes in oil prices on economic activity in France. We show that there are lags in the impact on GDP, which are on average over the period 1985-2015, of 4 quarters. The effect, for both increases and decreases, is significant only for variations in oil prices above 1 standard deviation. The asymmetric effect is extremely low and is similar for increases and decreases. Only the speed of adjustment differs (3 quarters for increases versus 4 for decreases). Finally, the effect depends on the business cycle: it is higher when the economy is in a state of moderate growth (low economic activity). The results of this study thus indicates that the effect of the oil price shock is coming and should start during the first quarter of 2016. JEL classification: Q43, E32.

Suggested Citation

  • Éric Heyer & Paul Hubert, 2016. "Trois questions autour de l’impact à court terme des variations du prix du pétrole sur la croissance française," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 195-222.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_147_0195

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: free

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: free

    Other versions of this item:

    More about this item


    oil; lag; inertia; business cycle non-linearity; asymmetry;

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_147_0195. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.