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France et Allemagne : une histoire du désajustement européen

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Listed:
  • Mathilde Le Moigne

    (École normale supérieure - Paris)

  • Xavier Ragot

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Abstract

La divergence économique entre la France et l’Allemagne depuis 1993 est impressionnante. Alors que les deux pays étaient dans des situations comparables à la fin des années 1990, l’Allemagne est aujourd’hu i au voisinage du plein emploi – en dépit d’inégalités en hausse – et est devenue l’un des pays les plus exportateurs du monde. La France connaît un niveau de chômage historique et voit ses performances commerciales se dégrader continûment. Plusieurs explications à cette divergence ont été proposées. Cet article quantifie la contribution particulière de la modération salariale allemande débutant outre-Rhin au milieu des années 1990 sur l’écart de performances économiques franco-allemand. En effet, les salaires allemands sont restés extraordinairement stables après la réunification allemande, et ce essentiellement dans les services. À l’aide d’un modèle quantitatif de commerce international, nous estimons que la modération salariale allemande est responsable de l’ordre de la moitié de l’écart de performances à l’exportation de la France par rapport à l’Allemagne, et explique environ 2% du taux de chômage français. Le problème de l’offre en France est essentiellement le résultat du désajustement européen

Suggested Citation

  • Mathilde Le Moigne & Xavier Ragot, 2015. "France et Allemagne : une histoire du désajustement européen," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/3j52sn8r3k8, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3j52sn8r3k83e8gsltmc1m2600
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    Cited by:

    1. Xavier Ragot, 2016. "Le retour de l’économie keynésienne," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(1), pages 173-186.
    2. Xavier Timbeau & Signe Dahl & Georg Feigl & Xavier Timbeau & Xavier Timbeau & Andrew Watt, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery. Independent Annual Growth Survey (iAGS) 2017," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 164, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.

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    Keywords

    France; Allemagne; Divergence européenne; Marché du travail;

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