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Internal Migration and Religious Change: Evidence from Brazil`s Evangelical Rise

Author

Listed:
  • Raphael Corbi
  • Tiago Ferraz
  • Fabio Miessi Sanches

Abstract

This paper examines how migration affects religious markets, focusing on Brazil`s sweeping religious transformation between 1980 and 2010, when Evangelicalism expanded rapidly and Catholic affiliation declined to historic lows, with far-reaching political and social consequences. Using exogenous variation in migration flows driven by international commodity price shocks, we show that migration increased Evangelical affiliation and reduced Catholic affiliation. To unpack this result, we examine two mechanisms: a demand-side channel, in which falling wages increased the appeal of Evangelicalism, and a supply-side channel, in which migration triggered a large and asymmetric expansion of Evangelical—though not Catholic—infrastructure. This asymmetry reflects deep institutional differences between Evangelical denominations and the Catholic Church. A structural model of religious choice suggests that this asymmetric supply-side response was the main driver of migration-induced Evangelical growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Raphael Corbi & Tiago Ferraz & Fabio Miessi Sanches, 2025. "Internal Migration and Religious Change: Evidence from Brazil`s Evangelical Rise," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2025_10, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    • Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2025wpecon10
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    File URL: http://www.repec.eae.fea.usp.br/documentos/Corbi_Ferraz_Sanches_10WP.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • Z12 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Religion
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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