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The gravity of electromobility. An early investigation of structural change in automotive industry

Author

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  • Jan Baran
  • Patryk Czechowski
  • Jakub Mućk

Abstract

In this paper we examine the role of the electromobility transformation for exports of the automotive sector. To do so, we propose a novel mapping of granular codes of automotive products into three categories: (i) combustion-specific, (ii) neutral, and (iii) electric-specific. We estimate a standard gravity model of the trade flows of automotive products, comparing the three categories with each other. We demonstrate that key drivers of export of the electric-specific products are similar to the combustion-specific ones. However, exports related to electric vehicles are more technologically intensive and supported by either a domestic R&D potential or international knowledge spillovers through FDI. In particular, export-oriented production of electric-specific intermediates proves to be to a large extent R&D intensive. Our results also suggest that the ongoing structural change in the automotive industry leads rather to intra-industry reorganization than to more fundamental restructuring of existing Global Value Chains.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Baran & Patryk Czechowski & Jakub Mućk, 2026. "The gravity of electromobility. An early investigation of structural change in automotive industry," KAE Working Papers 2026-122, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2026122
    DOI: 10.33119/kaewps2026122
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    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12182/1444
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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and Equipment

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