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Volatility Forecasts, Trading Volume and the ARCH vs. Option-Implied Volatility Tradeoff


  • Donaldson, R.G.
  • Kamstra, M.


Market expectations of future return volatility play a crucial role in finance; so too does our understanding of the process by which information is incorporated in security prices through the trading process. This paper seeks to learn something about both of these issues by investigating empirically the role of trading volume (a) in predicting the relative informativeness of volatility forecasts produced by ARCH models versus the volatility forecasts derived from option prices, and (b) in improving volatility forecasts produced by ARCH and option models and combinations of models.

Suggested Citation

  • Donaldson, R.G. & Kamstra, M., 2001. "Volatility Forecasts, Trading Volume and the ARCH vs. Option-Implied Volatility Tradeoff," Discussion Papers dp01-1, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
  • Handle: RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp01-1

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Pendakur, Krishna, 1998. "Semiparametric estimates and tests of base-independent equivalence scales," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 1-40, November.
    2. Pollak, Robert A & Wales, Terence J, 1978. "Estimation of Complete Demand Systems from Household Budget Data: The Linear and Quadratic Expenditure Systems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 348-359, June.
    3. Browning, Martin & Deaton, Angus & Irish, Margaret, 1985. "A Profitable Approach to Labor Supply and Commodity Demands over the Life-Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 503-543, May.
    4. Blundell, Richard & Pashardes, Panos & Weber, Guglielmo, 1993. "What Do We Learn About Consumer Demand Patterns from Micro Data?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 570-597, June.
    5. Keen, Michael, 1990. "Welfare analysis and intertemporal substitution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 47-66, June.
    6. Gozalo, Pedro L., 1997. "Nonparametric bootstrap analysis with applications to demographic effects in demand functions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 357-393, December.
    7. Pashardes, Panos, 1991. "Contemporaneous and intertemporal child costs : Equivalent expenditure vs. equivalent income scales," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 191-213, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Taylor, Nicholas, 2008. "Can idiosyncratic volatility help forecast stock market volatility?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 462-479.

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    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade


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