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The Real Side of Financial Exuberance: Bubbles, Output and Productivity at the Industry Level

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Abstract

There has been a growing interest in the theory of rational bubbles. Recent theories predict that bubbles are expansionary, but differ in the underlying mechanisms. This paper provides empirical evidence that help us assess different theories, and documents four main findings: stock market overvaluation is associated with (i) faster output and input growth, (ii) declining TFP growth, (iii) a greater contribution of labor for output growth, with no change in the contribution of capital, (iv) an increase in the number of firms. Overall, these findings suggest that bubbly expansions are driven by increased factor accumulation (in particular labor), and not from higher productivity growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Queirós, 2021. "The Real Side of Financial Exuberance: Bubbles, Output and Productivity at the Industry Level," CSEF Working Papers 632, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:632
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    Keywords

    Stock prices; fundamentals; bubbles; productivity growth.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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