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Incertezza aggregata e investimenti: una semplice analisi biperiodale con preferenze ricorsive

Listed author(s):
  • Enrico Saltari

Questo lavoro si propone di analizzare in un modello a due periodi l’effetto sull’investimento prodotto dall’incertezza aggregata — rappresentata nel modello dalla volatilità di uno shock tecnologico. La semplificazione del modello biperiodale permette di illustrare con semplicità la novità metodologica costituita dall’impiego delle preferenze ricorsive nell’analisi della relazione incertezza-investimento. La stessa semplificazione consente inoltre di chiarire l’intuizione sottostante il principale risultato. Si mostra in particolare che una maggiore incertezza ha effetti ambigui sull’investimento. Un aumento dell’incertezza può condurre sia ad un aumento che ad una diminuzione dell’investimento, a seconda dei valori assunti dall’avversione al rischio e dall’elasticità intertemporale di sostituzione.

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Paper provided by University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Public Economics in its series Working Papers with number 140.

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Length: 26
Date of creation: Mar 2011
Handle: RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp140
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