IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rza/wpaper/166.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Macroeconomic Impact of Skilled Emigration from South Africa: A CGE Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Heinrich R Bohlman

Abstract

South Africa faces the dual problem of large inflows of illegal immigrants and outflows of skilled emigrants. This situation potentially has serious implications for the domestic labour market and economy as a whole. In this paper we measure the impact of skilled emigration and the subsequent loss in primary factor productivity on the South African economy using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Results indicate that skilled emigration in the absence of any programmes to counter this flow of workers has a generally negative effect on the economy. Industries with the greatest exposure to the investment and export sectors as well as those with the highest concentration of skilled workers are shown to be most affected. We also use simple and intuitive back-of-the-envelope equations to enhance our understanding of the mechanisms driving the model’s macroeconomic results. These results justify the government’s current efforts to retain and attract skilled labour as part of the ASGISA framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Heinrich R Bohlman, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Skilled Emigration from South Africa: A CGE Analysis," Working Papers 166, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  • Handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:166
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econrsa.org/node/189
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aart Kraay & Norman Loayza & Luis Servén & Jaume Ventura, 2005. "Country Portfolios," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(4), pages 914-945, June.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Easterly, William & Levine, Ross, 1998. "Troubles with the Neighbours: Africa's Problem, Africa's Opportunity," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 7(1), pages 120-142, March.
    4. Roberto Rigobón & Kristin Forbes, 2001. "Contagion in Latin America: Definitions, Measurement, and Policy Implications," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-46, January.
    5. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1998. "Law and Finance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1113-1155, December.
    6. Ricardo Hausmann & Eduardo Fernández-Arias, 2000. "Foreign Direct Investment: Good Cholesterol?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1319, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Gastanaga, Victor M. & Nugent, Jeffrey B. & Pashamova, Bistra, 1998. "Host Country Reforms and FDI Inflows: How Much Difference do they Make?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1299-1314, July.
    8. Norbert Funke & Faisal Ahmed & Rabah Arezki, 2005. "The Composition of Capital Flows; Is South Africa Different?," IMF Working Papers 05/40, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 115-135.
    10. Fedderke, J.W. & Romm, A.T., 2006. "Growth impact and determinants of foreign direct investment into South Africa, 1956-2003," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 738-760, September.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    12. Albuquerque, Rui, 2003. "The composition of international capital flows: risk sharing through foreign direct investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 353-383.
    13. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 1999. "Governance matters," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2196, The World Bank.
    14. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    15. Faria, Andr & Mauro, Paolo, 2009. "Institutions and the external capital structure of countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 367-391, April.
    16. Fedderke, J. W. & de Kadt, R. H. J. & Luiz, J. M., 2001. "Indicators of political liberty, property rights and political instability in South Africa: 1935-97," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 103-134, March.
    17. Farayi Gwenhamo & Johannes W Fedderke & Raphael de Kadt, 2012. "Measuring institutions," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(4), pages 593-603, July.
    18. Ricardo Hausmann & Eduardo Fernández-Arias, 2000. "Foreign Direct Investment: Good Cholesterol?," Research Department Publications 4203, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    19. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rob Hodgson & Jacques Poot, 2011. "New Zealand Research on the Economic Impacts of Immigration 2005-2010: Synthesis and Research Agenda," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1104, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:166. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Charles Tanton). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ersacza.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.