IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Health Policy Model: Long-term Predictive Results Associated With The Management Of HCV-Induced Diseases In Italy




Background: This study is aimed at describing the epidemiological and economic burden that HCV will generate in the next few years in Italy. Furthermore, the impact that future anti-HCV treatments may have on the burden of disease was considered. The analysis has been developed over the period 2013-2030 from the Italian National Health Service (NHS) perspective. Methods: A published system dynamic model was adapted for Italy in order to quantify the HCV-infected population, the disease progression and the associated cost from 1950 to 2030. The model structure was based on transition probabilities reflecting the natural history of the disease. In order to estimate the efficacy of current anti-HCV treatment strategies for different Genotypes, it was estimated the sustained virological response (SVR) rate in registration clinical trials for both Boceprevir and Telaprevir. It was assumed that the efficacy for patients treated with peginterferon+ribavirin was equal to the placebo arm of randomized clinical trial (RCT) relating to Boceprevir and Telaprevir. According to the aim of the study, only direct healthcare costs (hospital admissions, drugs, treatment and care of patients) incurred by the Italian NHS have been included in the model. Costs have been extrapolated by the published scientific literature available in Italy and actualized at 2011 ISTAT Price Index system for monetary revaluation. Three different scenario was assumed in order to evaluate the impact of future anti-HCV treatments may have on the burden of disease. Results: Overall, in Italy 1.2 million infected subjects were estimated in 2012. Out of these, about 211 thousand patients were diagnosed, while about 11,800 subjects are actually being treated with anti-HCV drugs. A reduction of healthcare costs is associated with a prevalence decrease. Indeed, once the spending peak is reached during this decade (about € 527 million), the model predicts a cost reduction in the following 18 years. In 2030, due to the more effective treatments currently available, the direct healthcare cost associated with the management of HCV patients HCV may reach € 346 million (-34.3% compared to 2012). The first scenario (new treatment in 2015 with SVR = 90% and same number of treated patients) was associated with a significant reduction in HCV-induced clinical consequences (prevalence = -3%) and a decrease in healthcare direct expenses corresponding to € 11.1 million. The second scenario (increasing treated patients until 12,790) produced an incremental cost reduction of € 7.3 million, reaching a net decrease equal to € 18.4 million. In the third scenario (treated patients = 16,770), a higher net healthcare direct cost decrease vs the base-case (€ 44.0 million ) was estimated. Conclusions: This study does not have the pretension of being or creating a model of epidemiological projection. Its primary objective is to supply data and a careful consideration for a encourage dialogue among the different professionals fully involved in the management of patients with HCV-induced chronic infection, and to suggest a valuable tool for future health policy strategy. Running head: Long-term predictive HCV-induced diseases cost in Italy

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Saverio Mennini & Andrea Marcellusi & Massimo Andreoni & Antonio Gasbarrini & Salvatore Salomone & Antonio Craxì, 2014. "Health Policy Model: Long-term Predictive Results Associated With The Management Of HCV-Induced Diseases In Italy," CEIS Research Paper 308, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 17 Feb 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:308

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: Main text
    Download Restriction: no


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Marcellusi & Raffaella Viti & Francesco Damele & Calogero Cammà & Gloria Taliani & Francesco Saverio Mennini, 2016. "Early treatment in HCV: is it a cost-effective option from the Italian perspective?," CEIS Research Paper 370, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 23 Mar 2016.
    2. Elisabetta Garagiola & Emanuela Foglia & Lucrezia Ferrario & Paola Meraviglia & Alessandro Tebini & Barbara Menzaghi & Chiara Atzori & Giuliano Rizzardini & Teresa Bini & Antonella D’Arminio Monforte , 2020. "Comorbidities and HCV coinfection in the management of HIV+ patients: evidence from the Italian clinical practice," Health Economics Review, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Umberto Restelli & Alfredo Alberti & Adriano Lazzarin & Marzia Bonfanti & Carmela Nappi & Davide Croce, 2018. "Cost-effectiveness analysis of the use of daclatasvir + sofosbuvir + ribavirin (16 weeks and 12 weeks) vs sofosbuvir + ribavirin (16 weeks and 24 weeks) for the treatment of cirrhotic patients affecte," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 19(1), pages 37-44, January.

    More about this item


    Cost of Illness; Chronic Hepatitis; Forecast; New HCV treatment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:308. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Barbara Piazzi (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.