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Extending the Macroeconomic Impacts Forecasting Capabilities of the National Energy Modeling System

Author

Listed:
  • Christa D. Court

    (Food and Resource Economics Department, University of Florida)

  • Randall Jackson

    (Geology and Geography Department and Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University)

  • Amanda J. Harker Steele

    (KeyLogic Systems LLC-NETL)

  • Justin Adder

    (U.S. Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory)

  • Gavin Pickenpaugh

    (U.S. Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory)

  • Charles Zelek

    (U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy)

Abstract

To comprehensively model the macroeconomic impacts that result from changes in long-term energyeconomy forecasts, the United States Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) partnered with West Virginia University’s (WVU) Regional Research Institute to develop the NETL/WVU econometric input-output (ECIO) model. The NETL/WVU ECIO model is an impacts forecasting model that functions as an extension of the U.S. energy-economic models available from the United States (U.S.) Energy Information Administration’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Market Allocation (MARKAL) model. The ECIO model integrates a macroeconomic econometric forecasting model and an input-output accounting framework along derived forecast scenarios detailing a baseline of the U.S. energy-economy and an alternative forecast on how power generation resources can meet future levels of energy demand to generate estimates of the impacts to gross domestic product, employment, and labor income. This manuscript provides an overview of the model design, assumptions, and standard outputs.

Suggested Citation

  • Christa D. Court & Randall Jackson & Amanda J. Harker Steele & Justin Adder & Gavin Pickenpaugh & Charles Zelek, 2020. "Extending the Macroeconomic Impacts Forecasting Capabilities of the National Energy Modeling System," Working Papers Working Paper 2020-05, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
    • Handle: RePEc:rri:wpaper:2020wp05
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    File URL: https://researchrepository.wvu.edu/rri_pubs/217/
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy-Economy Forecasting; National Energy Modeling System; Input-Output Model; Econometric Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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