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Measuring the Degree of Currency Misalignment Using Offshore Forward Exchange Rates: The Case of the Korean Financial Crisis

Author

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  • Daekeun Park

    (Hanyang University)

  • Changyong Rhee

    (Seoul National University and University of Rochester)

Abstract

This paper proposes a new method of measuring the degree of currency misalignment through the use of offshore forward exchange rates. Using default risk adjusted no­arbitrage conditions for forward exchange contracts, we calculate the spot exchange rates and the domestic interest rates that are implied from the observed forward exchange rates. The difference between the implied and the observed spot exchange rates is our measure of currency misalignment. Our methodology is based on the presumption that, during a currency crisis, offshore forward exchange rates reflect market sentiments more closely than onshore spot and forward exchange rates. The latter are usually tightly regulated and heavily affected by government intervention during a non­normal event such as a financial crisis. We apply the method to the Korean financial crisis in 1997 and discuss its implication for evaluating the IMF adjustment program and explaining foreign capital flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Daekeun Park & Changyong Rhee, 2000. "Measuring the Degree of Currency Misalignment Using Offshore Forward Exchange Rates: The Case of the Korean Financial Crisis," RCER Working Papers 470, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    • Handle: RePEc:roc:rocher:470
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    Cited by:

    1. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2001. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1155-1197, December.
    2. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2001. "Hedging and financial fragility in fixed exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1151-1193.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    currency misalignment; covered interest parity; non­deriverable forwards; Korean financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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