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The Electoral Consequences of Pandemic Mortality: Ideological Shifts in Peru's Presidential Elections

Author

Listed:
  • Judhajit Chakraborty

    (Michigan State University)

  • Leah Lakdawala

    (Wake Forest University)

  • Eduardo Nakasone

    (Michigan State University)

Abstract

Using district-level data from Peruvian presidential elections, we examine how local exposure to COVID-19 mortality shaped voting in 2021. We decompose each district's electorate into votes for left, center, and right party blocs, classifying parties by the economic stance of their published platforms. Relative to their voting in earlier elections, districts with higher COVID-19 mortality in the months preceding the election moved away from parties of the market-oriented right and toward the left and center. Falsification tests reveal no evidence of differential pre-pandemic trends, and the decline of the right and rise of the left are robust to regional trends, alternative mortality measures, and alternative party classifications. Harder-hit districts experienced significant declines in household income and expenditure, and their residents were more likely to view Peru's income distribution as unfair, while turnout did not respond. The evidence is consistent with pandemic-induced economic hardship eroding support for parties defending the market status quo and raising demand for redistribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Judhajit Chakraborty & Leah Lakdawala & Eduardo Nakasone, 2026. "The Electoral Consequences of Pandemic Mortality: Ideological Shifts in Peru's Presidential Elections," Working Papers 140, Wake Forest University, Economics Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:wfuewp:023630
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    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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